“Sur in English”, a popular English language magazine aimed at expats, reported recently that some 5,000 expats have left Marbella in the last three years, most of them British. Although a new generation of expats is arriving every day, there is evidence that a number of factors are driving at least the Brits back home, and not all of those factors are related to the United Kingdom's proposed exit from the EU.
Reasons for leaving Costa del Sol
Many of those leaving Marbella have been living in Spain for more than a decade. Some of them are worried about ageing in a foreign country. They are 70 or older, and find life in a foreign country is suddenly not quite such an adventure any more.
British expats are Marbella's largest foreign community. The population register shows that almost 2,000 British residents have left Marbella in the past three years, decreasing from 5,612 in 2013 to 3,900 in 2015, according to data recently published by INE, Spain's national statistics institute. The British expats' exit has meant Marbella's single largest foreign community is now Moroccan. Last year, around 17% of the town's inhabitants were from Morocco, according to the population register; most of them choose to live in the town centre.
The change of demographic doesn't just apply to Marbella, but to the whole of the Costa del Sol; however, Marbella's particular population blend of foreigners is affected more than most. Ricardo Bocanegra, a lawyer specialising in helping foreigners, is also the head of the Federation of Foreigners' Association based at the Costa del Sol.
He believes many residents have left because of their advancing years and because their pensions won't stretch as far as they used to do with current price rises and unfavourable Sterling exchange rate.
But there is another explanation why expats are no longer renewing their registration; Mr Bocanegra explains: “The fact that somebody doesn’t renew their registration doesn’t mean that they are not going to continue living in Marbella.”
Spanish Tax Increases
Many foreigners are afraid to register because of the tax implications. Since the Hacienda Tax Authority launched the Model 720 form, everybody must declare their world-wide assets, income, bank accounts and residences, not just their Spanish ones.
“They make sure they are not here for more than six months, but they keep their home and continue to live here for much of the year, although from an administrative point of view they are no longer residents,” Bocanegra points out.
The changes in legislation governing registration of local populations and new taxation laws were supposed to allow Marbella town council to get a better understanding of how populations would increase in future. Marbella town council actually estimated a population growth reaching 150,000, but this has failed to materialise. Instead, foreign populations have shrunk quite drastically.
While in 2012 the register showed there were 146,645 residents, of which 43,239 were foreigners. In 2015, this figure had fallen to 139,537 in total, of which just 24,018 were non-Spanish residents. This means that the population of foreigners had declined from amounting to 30% of the total population to less than 20%.
Unreliable Registration Figures
Marbella's councillor for tourism, Javier Porcuna, points out that declaring one's world-wide assets has certainly had an affect on British people's willingness to remain in Marbella. However, there is another factor to be taken into account: “We believe that the delay in updating the data also has something to do with the changes we appear to be seeing now.”
Foreigners only need to renew their registration at Marbella Town Hall every five years, if they are originally from an EU country. Not everybody remembers to renew, some people leave without de-registering, others take an age before getting round to going on the register in the first place. Official figures may imply that there has been a mass exit of foreign populations over the last two or three years, but in reality, the figures are far more “fluid” than that and difficult to pin down.
Worries over Brexit's Implications
The UK's recent decision to leave the European Union has thrown many people into confusion, not least the experts trying to predict trends for British expats staying or leaving the Costa del Sol. Bocanegra's office is getting between five and six calls a day from Brits who'd like to apply for Spanish nationality, something many see as the preferred option and only way to avoid the potential effects Brexit will have to their dream of living in Spain.
Other Brits cannot cope with the uncertainty of Brexit. They are putting their Marbella homes on the market and are planning their return to Britain. “Not that many, but I do see some cases, especially elderly people, pensioners who decide it would be best for them to go back home,” the lawyer admits.
Marbella apartments, town houses and villas sold by expats returning home are snapped up fast by new arrivals from countries such as Russia or Ukraine and locals in search of “trading up” in property size. Marbella and the Costa del Sol remain a property hot spot, a dream place in the sun for thousands of foreign residents, despite the recent exodus of British expats.